With Congressman Charlie Crist deciding to run for Governor, Florida’s 13th Congressional district quickly became one of the biggest battleground districts in the country. However, a partisan gerrymander forced through by Governor DeSantis quickly changed that, moving the seat from a Biden + 6 to a Trump +7. The 13 point partisan swing gave the district a 12-point Republican lean per 538, and the Democratic primary field solidified around Eric Lynn as the party’s best shot to keep the seat blue.
With the primary cleared and the odds stacked against them, Kinetic and Lynn’s senior team developed a communications strategy that dropped partisanship from their messaging entirely. They focused on Lynn’s local roots, national security background, and commitment to common sense politics versus Anna Paulina Luna’s self-identified extremism. They also experimented with ad placements, pursuing streaming and local cable spots over the expensive Tampa broadcast market.
Lynn ultimately came up short, losing by eight points. But that was a four point overperformance compared to the partisan lean of the district, and pundits have cited Lynn as the top performing Democratic candidate in Florida in 2022 – outrunning Charlie Crist by 9 points and Val Demings by 6 points in FL-13.